When was Christ actually born? Let's take a crack at it...
Most historians date Herod the Great's death at 4 BC and therefore place the birth of Christ sometime before that because of the slaughter of the innocents, Certainly makes sense. Yet others, like W. E. Filmer, date Herod's death in 1 BC, and for good reasons. Either theory has its arguments, but I think the 1 BC date is more likely and fits the accounts in the gospels better.
In my view, there are two groups and one singular occurrence of astronomical events which set not only the timeline for Herod's death, but also the birth of Christ, his presentation at the Temple, the visit of the Magi, the escape of the holy family to Egypt, and the slaughter of the innocents.
The first group of events was the triple conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in 7 BC with Venus joining in a close grouping with those two within the constellation Pisces in 6 BC. The Magi, from their likely location in Mesopotamia, would have seen all this and would have interpreted Pisces as the “House of the Hebrews.” The details which fill out the picture:
- May 29, 7 BC: Jupiter passed Saturn for the first conjunction
- September 30, 7 BC: Jupiter retrograded past Saturn for the second conjunction
- December 5, 7 BC: Jupiter repassed Saturn for the third conjunction
- Late April 6 BC: a close grouping with all three planets visible in close proximity in Pisces.
- September 11, 3 BC: Jupiter passes close by Regulus (the "King Star") in the constellation Leo
- February 17, 2 BC: Jupiter retrogrades across Regulus
- May 8, 2 BC: Jupiter passes by Regulus again, completing a "circling" of the "King Star"
- June 17, 2 BC: Jupiter and Venus had an extraordinarily close conjunction, looking as if one very bright object in the evening sky (the west).
- In the area of Bethlehem shepherds are abiding with flocks overnight (which occurs during lambing season generally in March/April) in 2 BC
- The birth of Christ occurred sometime near the end of April, 2 BC (May 8th at the latest)
- Mary and Joseph remained in the area at an unnamed house for 8 days until Jesus' circumcision and another 33 days for postpartum purification (40 days total)
- The Magi visited, following the star they had seen in the east (Jupiter), on June 17, 2 BC
- The holy family escaped to Egypt very soon after the Magi's visit
- When the Magi didn’t report back to Herod, he slaughtered the males born after the star was first seen (September 11, 3 BC) and just to be sure, killed any male under 2 yrs of age born in Bethlehem
- Herod died before Passover in 1 BC, after the lunar eclipse in January fitting Josephus' details
- The holy family was given the okay to return home in a dream some time shortly after Herod's death.